EUR/USD: Minor breach of the 2016-19 uptrend – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD has sold off to and saw a minor breach of the 2016-2019 uptrend at 1.1306 after the ECB.

Key Quotes

“Provided that the market holds here then we favour a recovery to the 1.1576 200 day ma and the 1.1623 mid-October high and slightly longer term we target 1.1772, the 55 week ma. Near term rallies will need to regain the 1.1449 1100 day ma to re- focus on the topside and while capped here the market will remain on the defensive. Supports at 1.1267, 12.16 are expected to hold.”

“Failure at 1.1267 will trigger losses to the 1.1216 recent low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Please note that we continue to regard the 1.1216 recent low as an interim low for the market.”

“Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1625 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1795 back on the cards.”