Australia: Still a long wait for inflation to return to the band - Westpac

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, points out that Australia’s December Quarter CPI printed 0.5%qtr, compared to the market median of 0.4% and Westpac’s 0.3%, while the annual rate eased back to 1.8%yr from 1.9%yr in Q3.

Key Quotes

“The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4%qtr meeting market expectations. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.43% while the weighted median lifted 0.36%. The annual pace of the average of the core measures printed held the 1.8% pace from Q3 following 1.8%yr in Q2.”

“Incorporating revisions, the two quarter annualised growth in core inflation is only 1.5%yr well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace since December 2016.”

“Our preliminary estimate for Q1 2019 CPI is 0.1%qtr /1.4%yr for headline and 0.5%qtr/1.8%yr for core.”