NZ: Unemployment rate likely to bounce to 4.1% in Q4 – ANZ

Liz Kendall, senior economist at ANZ, expects to see a small bounce in the New Zealand’s unemployment rate from 3.9% to 4.1% in Q4.

Key Quotes

“Last quarter we saw a large fall, likely reflecting some noise, amidst genuine tightening in the labour market. But while the labour market is in a strong position, we may have seen the best this cycle has to offer.”

“Wage inflation is expected to have firmed to 2.1% y/y, reflecting previous tightening in the labour market, the higher minimum wage, and a boost from last year’s nurses’ pay settlement. But underlying wage inflation is expected to continue to improve only gradually.”