2 May 2014
NFP: Risks seem to be to the downside for USD - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, the risks for today's NFP seems to be to the downside for USD.
Key Quotes
The median forecast of 218k for US April non-farm payrolls is the highest on Bloomberg since the census-affected May 2010. So the bar has been set high for USD. MNI notes that seasonals are favourable – 5 of the past 6 April outcomes have beaten consensus, by an average of 62k."
"It seems forecasters are counting on further support from post-snow storm activity, even though the Feb-Mar profile was quite steady, at 197k and 192k. The unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 6.6% from 6.7%, matching January’s multi-year low."
"Given the price action in treasuries recently, the risks seem to be to the downside for USD – a soft number could see a fresh wave of USD selling while a stronger reading would probably still leave yields well below month-ago levels."
Key Quotes
The median forecast of 218k for US April non-farm payrolls is the highest on Bloomberg since the census-affected May 2010. So the bar has been set high for USD. MNI notes that seasonals are favourable – 5 of the past 6 April outcomes have beaten consensus, by an average of 62k."
"It seems forecasters are counting on further support from post-snow storm activity, even though the Feb-Mar profile was quite steady, at 197k and 192k. The unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 6.6% from 6.7%, matching January’s multi-year low."
"Given the price action in treasuries recently, the risks seem to be to the downside for USD – a soft number could see a fresh wave of USD selling while a stronger reading would probably still leave yields well below month-ago levels."