US: Retail sales likely to rise by 0.1% m/m in December - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are forecasting the US retail sales to rise 0.1% m/m in December, in line with the market consensus.

Key Quotes

“The shutdown-affected release should continue to reflect a negative impact from lower gasoline prices and a more measured expansion in core sales, with a 0.2% increase for the control group (market: 0.4%). That said, we see risks to the upside given the resiliency of the US consumer on the back of a strong labor market and steady wage growth.”

“January PPI will be released alongside retail sales where the market looks for producer-level inflation to moderate to 2.1% y/y from 2.5%, reflecting a 0.1% increase on the month.”