2 May 2014
Risk trends awaits for Non farm Payrolls - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, observes that a good number in today's Payrolls would trigger demand for risk-appetite.
Key Quotes
"The US dollar is modestly higher versus the euro and the yen but if there is a chance of greater moves in the foreign exchange market on the back of data releases then today’s the day when that is most likely to happen. But the markets, probably correctly, remains wary of the prospect of a sharp rise in volatility immediately after the employment report."
"For one, US yields have declined this week in the aftermath of the much weaker than expected real GDP report for Q1 which allows for a period of stronger data without causing much alarm at the Fed. 10-year yields are down nearly 10bps points this week with 2-year yields also lower."
"So even a stronger than expected employment report today will probably only take yields back to where they were at the beginning of the week. More on the jobs report below."
Key Quotes
"The US dollar is modestly higher versus the euro and the yen but if there is a chance of greater moves in the foreign exchange market on the back of data releases then today’s the day when that is most likely to happen. But the markets, probably correctly, remains wary of the prospect of a sharp rise in volatility immediately after the employment report."
"For one, US yields have declined this week in the aftermath of the much weaker than expected real GDP report for Q1 which allows for a period of stronger data without causing much alarm at the Fed. 10-year yields are down nearly 10bps points this week with 2-year yields also lower."
"So even a stronger than expected employment report today will probably only take yields back to where they were at the beginning of the week. More on the jobs report below."