When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for February is slated for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to drop to 99.0 versus 99.1 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen weaker at 103.9 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to stay unchanged at 94.2 in the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

 How could affect EUR/USD?

The spot could stall its upside momentum and drop back below the 1.1300 level on a bigger-than-expected drop in the IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could extend the gains further towards the 1.1400 level on a positive surprise.  

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “Bearish traders are likely to wait for a convincing break below the 1.1300 handle before positioning for any further depreciating move towards 1.1260-50 intermediate support en-route multi-month lows, around the 1.1215 region.  On the flip side, the 1.1360-70 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong hurdle and is closely followed by 50-day SMA, just ahead of the 1.1400 handle. The mentioned hurdle seems more likely to continue capping any attempted intraday up-move, though a sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move towards a near five-month-old descending trend-line resistance, currently near the 1.1460-65 region.”

Key Notes

Eurozone: German IFO and Italian rating review in focus - TDS

EUR futures: scope for extra consolidation

EU'S Malmstrom expects to get mandate for US talks in March

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).