National Australia Bank: Shift in stance of major Central banks

National Australia Bank’s analysis team points out that the US Fed is indicating that it will be patient and NAB don’t expect any rate hikes this year.

Key Quotes

“We think one is probable in 2020 if, as expected, unemployment stays low and inflation gradually rises.”

“The ECB also shifted its stance, providing a new funding package for banks and delaying the time when rate hikes might be considered (from ‘the summer of 2019’ to end 2019).”

“The BoJ is in a more difficult situation as it is not sure policy loosening would make things better given possible impact of lower rates on the health of financial institutions.”

“While forecast growth for the UK looks modest at best. Brexit has lowered the UK’s growth potential and the BoE expects inflation to eventually move slightly above target, requiring ‘gradual’ and ‘limited’ tightening. However, any action before a Brexit deal passes parliament is unlikely.”