8 May 2014
Investors’ expectations for JPY weakness scaled back - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - According to the latest Nomura's Client Survey on USDJPY, investors are growing more bearish on the pair near term.
Key Quotes
"Investors’ expectations for JPY weakness have scaled back, for both the short and medium term. Even though the majority of investors see upside than downside risk through end-2015, more investors now see a bigger risk undercutting 100 than exceeding 105 in the near future (mid-2014)."
"Estimated USDJPY long positions are now the smallest since January 2013, when we started client survey. Survey result showed only 31% of investors currently expecting the BOJ to ease by July, versus 82% in our previous, 27 March, survey, suggesting limited downside risk on USDJPY from the current level."
"In addition, only 29% expect GPIF to change its target portfolio by end-June, while 74% of investors expect the GPIF to change it by end-September. 89% expect Japan to start corporate tax cut in April 2015."
Key Quotes
"Investors’ expectations for JPY weakness have scaled back, for both the short and medium term. Even though the majority of investors see upside than downside risk through end-2015, more investors now see a bigger risk undercutting 100 than exceeding 105 in the near future (mid-2014)."
"Estimated USDJPY long positions are now the smallest since January 2013, when we started client survey. Survey result showed only 31% of investors currently expecting the BOJ to ease by July, versus 82% in our previous, 27 March, survey, suggesting limited downside risk on USDJPY from the current level."
"In addition, only 29% expect GPIF to change its target portfolio by end-June, while 74% of investors expect the GPIF to change it by end-September. 89% expect Japan to start corporate tax cut in April 2015."