US: NFP likely to print 165k in March - TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, after following two zig-zagging reports for January and February, they are looking for the US payrolls to return to a more sustainable 165k print in March.

Key Quotes

“In particular, we expect a recovery in employment in the construction sector following a sharp decline in February that likely reflected some impact from adverse weather. In addition, both manufacturing and services jobs should also register more trend-like gains. The regional manufacturing surveys suggest improvement, while services employment should be led by job gains in the education and leisure sectors.”

“We note, however, that the soft March ADP employment report increases risks for a downside surprise to our already below-consensus projection. The household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8% in March.”

“We expect wages to rise by a "soft" 0.3% m/m pace as we anticipate some payback from the February rise. This monthly increase should bring down the annual print by a tenth to 3.3% due to base effects.”