NZ: Volatility returns in migration data - ANZ

Miles Workman, senior economist at ANZ, notes that the volatility in New Zealand’s migration data returned in March, with around 5,000 net migrants being revised away in the year to February from last month’s read.

Key Quotes

“Revisions were at least in the “right” direction according to where we think the cycle is heading. That is, we think the cycle remains in gradual easing mode with arrivals flattening off and departures slowly lifting as earlier arrivals on temporary visas continue to cycle out. But that’s not what the official data show.”

“Annual net migration reportedly picked up to 56,100 in March from 55,000 in February and from its recent trough of 49,400 in June 2018. On a seasonally adjusted basis, net migration came in at 5,020 in March, down 730 from February with 470 more departures and 260 fewer arrivals.”

“Short-term visitor arrivals remain at a high level (3.87 million over the past year), but compared to March last year were down 10,100. However, the timing of the Easter holiday is likely impacting.”