When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Overview of the Australian jobs report

Early Thursday markets will see Australian employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 11:30 Sydney/9:30 Singapore/HK and 01:30 GMT. Having witnessed upbeat jobs report in March and the latest emphasis on the unemployment rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), April month employment change and unemployment rate become crucial for AUD/USD traders.

Market consensus favors a decline to 14.0K from 25.7K of seasonally adjusted employment change whereas the unemployment rate is likely ticking up to 5.1% versus 5.0% prior. Also, the participation rate is likely to remain unchanged at 65.7%.

TD Securities expect a mild increase in the unemployment rate to weigh on the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it said:

Employment in the early months of 2019 has been strongly tilted towards full-time (+112k vs -41k) and so the seasonally-neutral April report may have a decent +17k lift in jobs, but the odds are tilted towards them all being part-time. In the 7 May Policy Statement, the RBA made clear it is firmly focused on further progress in lowering the unemployment rate. We look for a small lift to 5.1%, nothing to a central bank, but combined with a fall in full-time employment could temporarily weigh on the AUD and give July OIS rate cut odds a boost. 

Westpac, on the other hand, focuses more on the details to be a signal for RBA’s future rate cuts:

Last week the RBA Board said that it “will be paying close attention to developments in the labour market at its upcoming meetings.” This adds another layer of interest to the always closely-watched labour force data, with the April survey due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. The March report was solid, with total employment up 25.7k, taking annual growth to 2.4%. Westpac looks for a more modest 10k in Apr, with consensus 15k.

We expect a steady participation rate at 65.7%, producing a 5.1% unemployment rate (consensus 5.0%). This would clearly not be welcomed by the RBA but our base case remains for the first rate cut to be delivered in August.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Recently mixed data at home and China question that likeliness of an upbeat outcome, which in turn indicates monetary policy normalization by the RBA amid on-going tensions between the US and China. However, chances of an Aussie uptick on surprisingly positive data can’t be denied.

Technically, 0.6900 and 0.6830 comprising January 2016 lows seem strong downside support with four-week-old resistance-line at 0.6975 being immediate resistance to watch during the quote’s pullback. Should prices rally past-0.6975, 0.7000 and 0.7050 can become buyers’ favorites.

Key Notes

AUD/USD is on the bids near 0.6930 ahead of Australian employment data

AUD/USD Analysis: bears waiting for employment data to add to shorts

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).