When is the ECB monetary policy decision and how could it affect EUR/USD?

ECB monetary policy decision overview

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision later this Thursday at 11:45 GMT and will be followed by the usual post-meeting press conference at 12:30 GMT. The central bank is widely expected to maintain status-quo and leave deposit rates unchanged at -0.40%. Hence, the key focus will be on the updated economic projections and the post-meeting press conference.

As Yohay Elam - FXStreet's own Analyst explains: “The recent deceleration in inflation will likely force a significant downgrade to the ECB's 2019 outlook – and that is priced in. If it takes further steps and become pessimistic for 2020, the euro may have room to fall. On the other hand, if Draghi and his colleagues surprise with optimism, the common currency may rise.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key event risk, Yohay offers important technical levels for trading the major: “EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1254 where it faces the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Pivot Point one-month Resistance 1, the Simple Moving Average 200-15m, and the SMA 50-1h. Further above, the pair faces another cap at 1.1279 where the SMA 100-1d, the PP 1d-R1, and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day meet.”

“Looking down, weak support awaits at 1.1220 where the PP 1w-R1 and the previous weekly high converge. Strong support awaits at the 1.1170-1.1.1181 range where a dense cluster of lines awaits the pair and includes the SMA 100-4h, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the BB 4h-Lower, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month,” he added further.

Key Notes:

   •  ECB Preview: Three things that may tilt EUR/USD to the downside

   •  ECB Preview: Major Banks expectations from June meeting

   •  EUR/USD: Bullish breakout invalidated ahead of the ECB

About the ECB interest rate decision 

ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.