China: Strong recovery in commodity imports – ANZ

ANZ analysts note that China’s commodity imports for July have shown a strong recovery despite concerns of weaker demand amid the US-China trade conflict.

Key Quotes

“Most commodities recorded a strong rebound from June volumes. However, the pick-up in year-on-year growth rates suggests underlying demand remains robust.”

“The end of the maintenance period saw crude oil imports rise in July. On a seasonal basis, imports were up 14% y/y to 41.04mt. We believe additional crude oil quota to private refiners should keep the imports upbeat in H2 2019.”

“Growth in LNG imports remains high, but has stagnated due to high inventories. Coal imports were strong, up 13.4% y/y to 7.9mt, despite ongoing concerns about import restrictions.”

“Primary copper imports rebounded strongly from June but remained soft on a seasonal basis. However, when combined with copper concentrate imports, total contained copper imports were up 9% y/y in July.”

“Iron ore imports also recorded a strong recovery in July as disruptions in Australia and Brazil eased. Total imports rose 21% m/m to 91mt. They also record their strongest year-on-year gain since Vale’s mine closures in Brazil. This trend is likely to continue as Vale restarts more mines in H2 2019.”