US: NFP likely to print 160K in September – NBF

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, in the U.S., the most important piece of news will be September’s non-farm payrolls with jobless claims continued to hover near 50-year lows in the month, hinting at a very subdued rate of layoffs.

Key Quotes

“Hiring in the private sector, meanwhile, may have eased somewhat judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed employment advancing at the weakest pace since early 2015. However, this deceleration may have been offset by the hiring of temporary workers at the Federal government to help carry out the 2020 census.”

“All told, we’re calling for a slight acceleration in job creation to 160K, a level still sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labour market and keep the unemployment rate steady over the long term (approx. 110K/month). The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay unchanged at 3.7% if, as we believe, the household survey shows just a small decline in employment following August’s outsized gain.”