US: Signs of a softening labour market – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts note that the US equities had a rough run on Wednesday after a somewhat weak ADP report spurred fears that the otherwise resilient-looking US consumer is starting to be hit by the global industrial slowdown.

Key Quotes

“ADP employment on the headline came close to expectations at 135K vs consensus 140K but the previous month was revised down to 157K from 195K and thus on balance left the impression of weakening.”

“The correlation of ADF to the all-important non-farm payrolls report from month to month is not high, but note that we have a below-consensus call of 100K on the latter for tomorrow. Then signs of a softening labour market will be key for the Fed, as comfort has so far been taken from US private consumption holding up well amid the manufacturing slump on the back of trade woes.”