NZD/USD remains in a multi-month downtrend – Westpac

Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac, suggests that NZD/USD remains in a multi-month downtrend, the next major downside target being 0.6130 (which was the 2015 low).

Key Quotes

“Multi-month, there’s potential for even lower. Near term it’s looking increasingly stretched, a corrective bounce due.”

“While US dollar strength remains the main driver of NZD/USD, NZ fundamentals are also weighing. The NZIER business confidence survey was weak across the board, and it’s a survey the RBNZ watches closely. It signals a further slowdown in NZ GDP growth, our forecasts for Q3 and Q4 being 0.4% and 0.5%, which would take the annual pace down to 2.0%.”

“NZD markets have clearly been spooked by the weak business confidence survey (as well as global growth concerns). Pricing for the 13 Nov meeting is now at 27bp, i.e. some chance of a 50bp cut.”