EUR/USD: US economy key for direction – MUFG

Analysts at MUFG Bank, see the EUR/USD pair with a neutral bias and expect it to trade in the 1.0800/1.1100 range over the next days. 

Key Quotes:

“One key event for EUR/USD in the week ahead will of course be the payrolls report from the US tomorrow. The euro has rallied modestly on the back of the weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing print and if that weakness was evident in the jobs report tomorrow, it would likely prompt a further rally for EUR/USD. The weaker ADP yesterday suggests the market may be braced for a softer number that may limit the FX reaction if not too distant from the current consensus of 148k.”

“Talks next week between the US and China will probably be the key macro event of the week but we are sceptical of this providing a catalyst for any notable shift in sentiment and trade uncertainties are set to persist. Indeed, the US are set to implement tariffs following the WTO ruling in favour of the US complaint of the EU providing unfair subsidies for Airbus. So if anything trade tensions could escalate further and with the macro backdrop worse in the euro-zone than in the US, any rally induced by a possible weak payrolls report is unlikely to last.”

“With the euro-zone calendar very light next week, we expect a relatively narrow trading range.”