US: Headline CPI likely to print 1.8% YoY in September – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline CPI to tick up a tenth to 1.8% YoY in September (0.1% MoM) despite another monthly decline in energy prices.

Key Quotes

“Conversely, core inflation should stay unchanged at 2.4% y/y, reflecting a firm 0.2% m/m advance — though slightly softer than in Jun-Aug, as core goods inflation likely lost some steam on a monthly basis. That said, a steady 0.2% m/m gain in services should support core prices in September.”

“We anticipate OER to advance at 0.3% m/m, up from two consecutive 0.2% monthly gains, and for the ex-shelter segment to slow modestly on a monthly basis.”