UK: Election remains unpredictable – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, continues to expect that the UK PM Johnson to comply with legislation requiring a Brexit delay in the event no deal is passed by parliament, after which they expect a general election to follow in late November/early December.

Key Quotes

“While PM Johnson’s Conservatives currently enjoy around a 10-point lead in the opinion polls, polling has been highly volatile over the past year, with many Conservative voters ready to switch allegiances with the Brexit Party should they lose trust in PM Johnson’s ability to deliver Brexit.”

“Given this, the outcome of the election is highly unpredictable, depending on the following factors: 1) whether Conservatives campaign on a no-deal (if EU does not agree), or a deal platform (if EU agrees but parliament doesn’t pass); 2) whether Conservative voters punish the Conservatives for the inevitable Brexit delay, 3) the potential for alliances among pro-Brexit Conservatives and the Brexit Party on one hand, and anti-Brexit Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens on the other.”