France: 2020 budget offers more stimulus, less austerity – BNP Paribas

Hélène Baudchon, analyst at BNP Paribas, suggests that in the 2020 draft budget bill of France, the government is forecasting a deficit of 3.1% of GDP in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020 (after an observed deficit of 2.5% in 2018).

Key Quotes

“The improvement in the 2020 deficit is misleading for the same reason as the widening of the 2019 deficit. Unlike the 2019 figures, 2020 no longer shows any traces of the one-off fiscal cost of the transformation of the CICE tax credit into reduced employers’ contributions.”

“Excluding exceptional items, the fiscal deficit narrows by 0.1 point each year to 2.1% in 2020.”

“The new 2020 deficit target is nearly a point higher than the one proposed last year in the 2019 draft budget bill. The wider deficit can be attributed in equal proportions to the downward revision of growth forecasts and structural adjustment.”

“The 2020 budget focuses on stimulating growth, by boosting the purchasing power of low-income and middle class households, rather than on deficit reduction.”