UK: unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9% in September – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9% in September (market 3.9%) after last month's unexpected nudge higher.

Key Quotes

“For wage growth, we look for ex-bonus wages to edge up a touch to 3.9% y/y (mkt 3.8%), with underlying private sector regular pay growth holding steady at 4.0% y/y. While there are signs from other surveys that the UK labour market may start to deteriorate further, the evidence will likely be slow to build given the lags in the data. (This month's data is a 3m MA of July-Sept figures.)”