RBNZ likely to have two further cuts in May and August next year – ANZ

According to analysts at ANZ, the RBNZ, RBA, and the Federal Reserve have all now joined the Texas Hold’em club, betting – for now – on previous rate cuts doing the job.

Key Quotes

“Most analysts and the market had been expecting one more cut from the RBNZ last week, taking the OCR to an RBA-matching 0.75%. But while the RBNZ did significantly downgrade their near-term outlook, as expected, a lower TWI and a downward revision to their estimate of how fast the economy can grow offset that.”

“There are still aspects of their medium-term outlook that we see as too optimistic, and the RBNZ has yet to take into account the bank capital changes, to be announced 5 December.”

“We are now forecasting two further cuts in May and August next year, taking the OCR to 0.5%. The risks are tilted towards earlier and/or more cuts, depending partly on the outcome of the RBNZ’s capital proposals, but also global factors.”