UK election poll news: GBP price action after the election will be asymmetric

UK election risk for sterling – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, Senior Economist at ABN AMRO offered a brief insight about the upcoming UK general election on Thursday, wherein the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is expected to win a majority.

Key Quotes:

“The UK goes to the polls in a general election on Thursday, and we should have a good idea of the outcome on Friday morning. The latest opinion polls still show the Conservatives with a comfortable lead, with the Britain Elects poll of polls moving from 11.2pt lead at the start of the campaign to a 9.7pt lead as of today. Individual polls range from a 6-15 point lead. Should the ultimate outcome be closer to the lower end of that range, we could yet end up with a hung parliament.” Read more…

GBP and UK election: Asymmetric sterling reaction

GBP price action after the election will be asymmetric; less pronounced gains on a market-friendly outcome vs more meaningful losses on a non-market friendly outcome. A Conservative party majority should send EUR/GBP to 0.82/0.83 within a day. A hung parliament should lead to EUR/GBP spiking to 0.87. The asymmetry applies to spillovers into other G10 FX. Read more…

Election looms large over UK markets

In less than 24 hours Britons will head to the polling booths for the 3rd general election in the past 5 years. Ever since the pandemonium which ensued in the markets following the 2016 EU referendum, big political events have garnered a greater degree of interest amongst traders and they now eagerly await another that has the potential to cause quite a stir. Read more...