USD/JPY to move in line with the broad USD trend – Westpac

Westpac analysts continue to expect USD/JPY to move in line with the broad US dollar trend into 2020.

Key Quotes

“Having appreciated since August, the past month or so has seen USD/JPY flatten out, with moves mirroring price action in the US 10 year bond. From JPY108.5 currently, we foresee the cross falling to a low of JPY105 in the second half of 2020 after the FOMC's three cuts.”

“Come 2021 however, the USD/JPY trend is likely to turn again, with the pair rising back to JPY109 end–2021 after the FOMC goes on hold and US growth stabilises. From 2021, there is likely to be greater downside risk to the Japanese economy than the US amid still–soft global trade, a competitive Asian market place, and limited scope to ease monetary policy.”

“As per Sterling, risks for the Yen are skewed to the downside (higher USD/JPY) and are more likely to present in 2021 than 2020.”