When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD traders will have an excuse to ignore the recently fading optimism surrounding the US-China trade relations. That’s in the form of November month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been keeping a close eye on the jobs report, any deviation from the upbeat forecasts could increase the odds of further rate cuts in 2020.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to improve to 14.0K from -19K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely staying unchanged to 5.3%. Also, no change is anticipated in 66.1% Participation Rate.

Westpac stays modestly positive ahead of the release as their analysts say,

With the next GDP data not due until March, Australia’s labor force surveys are particularly important for markets skittish over the RBA’s 4 February policy decision. In the November report (11:30 am Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK), the median forecast for employment is +15k, a rebound from the surprise (but arguably overdue) -19k fall in Oct, the first negative reading since May 2018 and the weakest month since Sep 2016. Westpac expects a modest +8k. We look for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.3% (equal high since May 2018), assuming the participation rate remains at 66.0%.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Dovish RBA minutes and a downbeat record of the fourth quarter (Q4) Bulletin highlights the importance of today’s employment data. Even if the headlines Employment Change is expected to come in surprisingly high while reversing the earlier negative reading, a soft figure could add burden on to the Aussie pair.

In doing so, a three-week-old rising trend line around 0.6840 will be the key to watch as it holds the gate for further declines to 0.6800 round-figure. On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level near 0.6905 can restrict near-term upside.

Key Notes

AUD/USD seesaws around 0.6850 ahead of the Aussie jobs report

AUD/USD Forecast: Under pressure but above 0.6800

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).