13 Jun 2014
BoE forecasts drawn in - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - RBS strategists draw in their estimates for the timing of the rise in UK interest rates.
“Following Governor Carney's Mansion House speech last night, we bring forward our forecast for the first rise in Bank Rate to February 2015 (previously August 2015), with the risks skewed towards an earlier move.
"We acknowledge that this forecast change is being made against the metaphorical cacophony of stable doors being slammed shut. Perhaps we ought to have seen it coming”.
“The data flow has strengthened and emergency policy settings do appear increasingly incongruous alongside a normalising economy and more compelling evidence that the fabled 'escape velocity' has been reached".
"Our forecast was guided (misguided, perhaps) by the BoE's dovishly-tinted forecasts and rhetoric. In our defence, the abrupt moves in FX and fixed income markets show that this was not expected – and this is a market which was already fully-priced for a February 2015 hike”.
“Following Governor Carney's Mansion House speech last night, we bring forward our forecast for the first rise in Bank Rate to February 2015 (previously August 2015), with the risks skewed towards an earlier move.
"We acknowledge that this forecast change is being made against the metaphorical cacophony of stable doors being slammed shut. Perhaps we ought to have seen it coming”.
“The data flow has strengthened and emergency policy settings do appear increasingly incongruous alongside a normalising economy and more compelling evidence that the fabled 'escape velocity' has been reached".
"Our forecast was guided (misguided, perhaps) by the BoE's dovishly-tinted forecasts and rhetoric. In our defence, the abrupt moves in FX and fixed income markets show that this was not expected – and this is a market which was already fully-priced for a February 2015 hike”.