Eurozone: Economy in freefall – Danske Bank

The March PMIs gave a first piece of evidence that the euro area economy is heading for a steep recession, analysts at Danske Bank report.

Key quotes

“The March PMI points to a growth contraction of around 2% q/q. With many government containment measures stepped up in the past few days and production closures in industry and the important car sector only just starting to bite, further PMI declines in coming months seem likely to us.”

 “We lower our annual 2020 forecasts for Germany and the euro area to -2.8% and -3.2%, respectively.”

“We expect unemployment to increase by some 2m in coming months.”

“Our forecast assumes a gradual opening up of the economy throughout the course of Q2, followed by a strong rebound in growth in Q3.”