24 Jun 2014
Further easing in China within months expected - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Zhiwei Zhang, Economist at Nomura, continues to expect further easing in China over the next few months.
Key Quotes
"We believe the policy easing rolled-out so far has helped stabilise growth momentum and we expect GDP growth of 7.4% y-o-y in Q2, unchanged from Q1."
"We continue to expect further easing over the next few months and a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio in Q3. This should help GDP growth rise slightly to 7.5% y-o-y in Q3 and 7.6% in Q4, bringing full-year 2014 GDP growth of 7.5%. "
"However, we do not believe the recovery will be sustainable in the medium term and continue to expect growth to slow to 6.8% in 2015 as the property market correction continues to weigh on growth, while higher inflation (we forecast 3.3% in Q4 and 3.2% for full-year 2015) is likely to limit the scope for further policy easing next year."
Key Quotes
"We believe the policy easing rolled-out so far has helped stabilise growth momentum and we expect GDP growth of 7.4% y-o-y in Q2, unchanged from Q1."
"We continue to expect further easing over the next few months and a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio in Q3. This should help GDP growth rise slightly to 7.5% y-o-y in Q3 and 7.6% in Q4, bringing full-year 2014 GDP growth of 7.5%. "
"However, we do not believe the recovery will be sustainable in the medium term and continue to expect growth to slow to 6.8% in 2015 as the property market correction continues to weigh on growth, while higher inflation (we forecast 3.3% in Q4 and 3.2% for full-year 2015) is likely to limit the scope for further policy easing next year."