24 Jun 2014
EUR/USD to have hard time breaking above 1.3650 - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac thinks its hard to see a compelling argument for a break above 1.3650 in EUR/USD.
Key Quotes
"Downside momentum has come to a screeching halt but we suspect 1.3650-1.3700 will be likely stacked with medium term offers."
"EONIA may yet print negative in coming days and weeks and the ECB’s balance sheet is set to expand by at least EUR500bn in the next six months (EUR100bn+ from ending SMP sterilisation and EUR400bn from the two TLTROs scheduled later this year) vs a “mere” $100bn from the Fed."
"Relative Fed/ECB balance sheet trends may be a simplistic model for FX markets but it has nevertheless had an uncanny knack of accurately foretelling multi month trends in the EUR/USD exchange rate for almost six years. Bottom line, its hard to see a compelling argument for a break of 1.3650."
Key Quotes
"Downside momentum has come to a screeching halt but we suspect 1.3650-1.3700 will be likely stacked with medium term offers."
"EONIA may yet print negative in coming days and weeks and the ECB’s balance sheet is set to expand by at least EUR500bn in the next six months (EUR100bn+ from ending SMP sterilisation and EUR400bn from the two TLTROs scheduled later this year) vs a “mere” $100bn from the Fed."
"Relative Fed/ECB balance sheet trends may be a simplistic model for FX markets but it has nevertheless had an uncanny knack of accurately foretelling multi month trends in the EUR/USD exchange rate for almost six years. Bottom line, its hard to see a compelling argument for a break of 1.3650."