AUD/JPY: Multi-week risks to 64 – Westpac

AUD/JPY remains one of the most reliable risk barometers on a multiday/week timeframe, economists at Westpac Institutional Bank said. 

Key quotes

“Weak energy prices hurt AUD and benefit JPY, reinforcing the risks to AUD/JPY from the coming weeks of dismal economic data and earnings reports globally.”

“AUD/JPY is well below its long-term average, though the 60-70 range is quite familiar, accounting for 10.7% of trade since the Australian dollar was floated in 1983.” 

“The average rate since 2000 is below 82. This may be a more relevant reference point, meaning AUD/JPY is not dramatically weaker than its average for this century.” 

“We see multi-week risks to 64.”