Turkey: USD/TRY to break above 7 after CBRT rate cut – TDS

The CBRT has cut the repo by 100bps to 8.75% today, more than TD Securities’ analysts (-75bps), and the consensus (-50bps) had expected. USD/TRY is sitting at 6.98.

Key quotes

“The CBRT has cut its benchmark repo rate by 100bps to 8.75% today, more than we had forecasted (75bps cut) and twice as much as anticipated by the consensus.” 

“The CBRT does not seem concerned about providing larger monetary stimulus than the market was priced for and, reading in between the lines, hints at more easing to come.”

“USD/TRY is likely to soon break above 7 and re-test all-time highs at 7.2362. We continue to expect an ultimate peak of 7.70.”