AUD/USD climbs above 0.6350 as focus shifts to US data

• Australia's exports increased by 29% in March, Manufacturing PMI fell in April.
• US Dollar Index clings to modest daily gains above 100.50.
• Markit Manufacturing PMI in US is expected to drop to 38 from 48.5.

The AUD/USD pair stayed relatively quiet near the 0.6300 mark during the Asian session amid mixed macroeconomic data releases from Australia but gained traction in the early European morning. With the greenback struggling to preserve its strength in the last hour, the pair continued to edge higher and was last seen trading at 0.6353, adding 0.5% on a daily basis. 

Earlier in the day, the Australia Bureau of Statistics reported that Exports in March increased by 29% following February's 5% decline. However, the disappointing PMI figures didn't allow the AUD to capitalize on the upbeat trade data. The Commonwealth Bank's Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 from 49.7 while the Services PMI plunged to 19.6 from 38.5.

Busy day on US economic calendar

In the second half of the day, the US Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the IHS Markit's Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US will be watched closely by the market participants. Ahead of these data, the US Dollar Index is up 0.22% on the day at 100.55. 

Previewing the Jobless Claims data, “initial claims in the US were the great reality shock from the pandemic," said FXStreet analyst Joseph Trevisani. "If they continue to improve and there is no second wave of American layoffs and if the moves to reopen economies in European and US states are well received the dollar premium will slowly fade.”

Meanwhile, the Markit Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 38 in April's preliminary estimate from 48.5 in March. A better-than-expected reading could allow risk-on flows to return to markets and weigh on the USD.

Technical levels to watch for