US Dollar Index: USD strength set to linger – Westpac

The US Dollar Index can't seem to trade sustainably below 100 for a hot minute, even though volatility has eased in multiple markets, strategists at Westpac Institutional Bank apprise.

Key quotes

“The Fed's quick deployment of a comprehensive array of crisis backstop programs has promoted some healing in formerly dysfunctional credit and funding markets, trimming USD upside safe-haven potential. But ongoing fragility elsewhere likely sees DXY strength linger for some time yet.”

“The oil shock is admittedly a net negative for the US given the sharp lift in oil/gas investment and extraction in recent years, but energy production and exports account for much larger shares of GDP for a number of EM/commodity economies.” 

“The oil shock and simmering EU tensions surely accentuate the COVID-19 global growth shock. Against that backdrop the USD likely sees ongoing structural demand, though near term event risks may be a challenge.” 

“Advance Q1 GDP next week likely falls shy of expectations in line with serial negative surprises of late, while the FOMC statement and Powell press conference likely underscore ongoing readiness to deploy more accommodation and support for smooth market functioning.”