US dollar downtrend to continue, especially vs. euro – Reuters poll

The ongoing US dollar breakdown will continue into the next year amid faltering economic recovery, in the wake of the coronavirus resurgence. Meanwhile, the US-Europe macro divergence is likely to benefit the euro.

Key findings

“The July 31-Aug. 5 poll of more than 60 currency strategists showed the dollar was expected to continue to underperform against most major currencies over the coming 12 months, with a good chance of that weakness extending beyond a year.

Indeed, more than half the strategists, or 33 of 62, in response to an additional question said the dollar’s weakening trend would continue for at least another six months, including 24 respondents who expect it to run for more than a year.

About a quarter, or 15 analysts, said it would be less than six months. While 11 said it would be less than three months, just three respondents said it was already over.

The single currency was expected to trade at about $1.18 in a year’s time.”