S&P 500 Index: 31% of traders are bullish while just 29% are bearish – Charles Schwab

Charles Schwab recently conducted a second survey this year of Active Traders (>36 trades per year) to gauge how the current geopolitical climate, economic data and market conditions may be impacting trading.  Ryan Frederick analyzes the results of the survey fielded between 11 August and 17 August. The S&P 500 has already rebounded 51% since the bear-market bottom on 23 March.

Key quotes

“31% said they are bullish on the equity markets (up from 26% in April), while only 29% are bearish (down significantly from 36% in April). Additionally, 40% (on par with 38% in April) reported feeling neutral.”

“61% expect overall market volatility in Q4 to exceed the volatility we’ve experienced (and are experiencing) in Q2 and Q3. About a quarter of you expect it to be the same, and the rest of you expect lower volatility. Even at its current level in the low 20’s, the VIX remains several points above normal levels, and is expected to increase as the election approaches.”

“Nearly half of traders (45%) believe it will take one-to-three years for the economic recovery to reach pre-COVID levels once the virus is contained, and more than 20% of you think it will take longer than three years.”

“About 74% felt there is a disconnect between the stock market and the economy. And among those who are concerned about it, 83% said they are very or somewhat concerned.”