AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bumpy road for the bulls?

• AUD/JPY keeps late-Friday pullback from 77.09 to stay firm near 16-month top.
• Nearly overbought RSI conditions suggest pullback from 200-week EMA.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a six-month-old ascending trend line adds to the upside barriers.
• Fresh selling can be found below 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.

AUD/JPY bulls catch a breather after Friday’s stellar north-run towards challenging the multi-month high. That said, the quote seesaws around 77.60 amid the early Monday morning in Asia.

Although sustained break of the early 2019 lows keeps the bulls hopeful, nearly overbought conditions of RSI flashes the red signals for the pair’s further upside. Also challenging the optimists is the 200-week EMA, currently around 78.40.

Even if the quote manages to cross the key EMA, an upward sloping trend line from February will join 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downside from September 2020, near 78.60/70, to question the additional rise targeting the 80.00 threshold.

Meanwhile, July 22 top near 76.85 offers immediate support to the pair ahead of 50% Fibonacci retracement level close to 75.10.

It should, however, be noted that the bears will cheer a downside break of 75.00 to recall July month’s low of 72.52.

AUD/JPY weekly chart

Trend: Pullback expected