10 Jul 2014
US rate hike in Q3 2015? - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, sees the first rate hike by the Fed in Q3 next year.
Key Quotes
"If I read the FOMC Minutes right, they plan to end 'tapering' in October, and then do absolutely nothing for a really long time. There is no reason for anyone to alter a view that the first rate move (to a 25-50bp FF range?) comes in Q3 2015."
"This is tantamount to sticking a sign above the Fed that says 'Party on, Dudes' - a green light for carry and yield-seekers, and a nightmare for vol buyers. I reckon we'll get fireworks in September if we see some upside economic surprises but in the meantime, investors are likely to head from G10FX in the direction of EM local and hard currency bonds."
Key Quotes
"If I read the FOMC Minutes right, they plan to end 'tapering' in October, and then do absolutely nothing for a really long time. There is no reason for anyone to alter a view that the first rate move (to a 25-50bp FF range?) comes in Q3 2015."
"This is tantamount to sticking a sign above the Fed that says 'Party on, Dudes' - a green light for carry and yield-seekers, and a nightmare for vol buyers. I reckon we'll get fireworks in September if we see some upside economic surprises but in the meantime, investors are likely to head from G10FX in the direction of EM local and hard currency bonds."