11 Jul 2014
Preview: Canada's employment report - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - FX Strategists at RBS share their analysis on the upcoming Canadian employment report for July, due on Friday.
Key Quotes
Canadian employment is released ahead of the July 16th Bank of Canada (BoC) decision, which will include a new Monetary Policy Report and forecasts. The consensus anticipates a 20K gain in headline employment. Full time employment may pull back in June after falling 60K over the past two months, well below the prevailing trend (full-time job gains have been essentially flat since the beginning of 2013)."
"Flooding in Saskatchewan and Manitoba occurred after the survey period for June employment and thus any impact should not be reflected in these data."
"Markets have now largely priced out the expectations for BoC rate cuts in 2014 and now have a solidly neutral outlook for the overnight lending rate ahead of the BoC meeting next week - as a result, we feel the market is well prepared for a less dovish (more neutral) sounding BoC next week, a view that may be reinforced by a rebound in full-time employment."
"CFTC positioning data, while only one snapshot of the market, shows that as of last Tuesday speculators held a net long position in CAD for the first time since February 2013."
Key Quotes
Canadian employment is released ahead of the July 16th Bank of Canada (BoC) decision, which will include a new Monetary Policy Report and forecasts. The consensus anticipates a 20K gain in headline employment. Full time employment may pull back in June after falling 60K over the past two months, well below the prevailing trend (full-time job gains have been essentially flat since the beginning of 2013)."
"Flooding in Saskatchewan and Manitoba occurred after the survey period for June employment and thus any impact should not be reflected in these data."
"Markets have now largely priced out the expectations for BoC rate cuts in 2014 and now have a solidly neutral outlook for the overnight lending rate ahead of the BoC meeting next week - as a result, we feel the market is well prepared for a less dovish (more neutral) sounding BoC next week, a view that may be reinforced by a rebound in full-time employment."
"CFTC positioning data, while only one snapshot of the market, shows that as of last Tuesday speculators held a net long position in CAD for the first time since February 2013."