11 Jul 2014
National data points to a decline in Eurozone aggregate production - ING
FXStreet (Łódź) - Martin Van Vilet from ING expects Eurozone Industrial Production data, due out on Monday, to reveal a pronounced weakness.
Key quotes
"Industrial output in France and Italy fell by 1.7% and 1.2% MoM, respectively, in May, according to data released yesterday. Earlier this week, Germany and Spain both revealed that industrial output there fell as well (by 1.4% and 0.9%)."
"Taken together, the national data point to a decline in Eurozone aggregate production, due on Monday, of around 1.2% MoM."
"That would more than reverse the 0.8% MoM increase seen in April and if output were to remain unchanged in June, industrial production would have stagnated in 2Q as a whole."
"However, the recent weakness in industrial output is more pronounced than suggested by the PMI manufacturing survey. Moreover, as the French statistics agency already noted, the decline in May could have been exacerbated by the timing of public holidays, as this may have prompted people to take extra days off work."
"Against this backdrop, we expect Eurozone industrial production – and incidentally also its UK equivalent – to bounce back in June."
"We would need to see further PMI weakness before we become concerned about a stalling industrial (and wider) recovery."
Key quotes
"Industrial output in France and Italy fell by 1.7% and 1.2% MoM, respectively, in May, according to data released yesterday. Earlier this week, Germany and Spain both revealed that industrial output there fell as well (by 1.4% and 0.9%)."
"Taken together, the national data point to a decline in Eurozone aggregate production, due on Monday, of around 1.2% MoM."
"That would more than reverse the 0.8% MoM increase seen in April and if output were to remain unchanged in June, industrial production would have stagnated in 2Q as a whole."
"However, the recent weakness in industrial output is more pronounced than suggested by the PMI manufacturing survey. Moreover, as the French statistics agency already noted, the decline in May could have been exacerbated by the timing of public holidays, as this may have prompted people to take extra days off work."
"Against this backdrop, we expect Eurozone industrial production – and incidentally also its UK equivalent – to bounce back in June."
"We would need to see further PMI weakness before we become concerned about a stalling industrial (and wider) recovery."