When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT for the rest, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held during the initial February month.

The RBA’s February month monetary policy meeting matched wide market forecasts of no rate cut and an extension of the Quantitative Easing (QE) from April. However, statements like “the Bank does not expect to hit its inflation & jobs goals until 2024 at the earliest,” seem to challenge AUD/USD bulls who are teasing the yearly top off-late.

While traders are more inclined to look for more bearish clues, an off in China seems to dim the event’s impact. However, any fresh challenges to the RBA’s cautious optimism will be the key to watch amid broadly upbeat sentiment.

Concerning the event, Westpac said,

Of interest will be additional color around the extension of the QE program.

TD Securities also considers the event as having importance while saying,

We anticipate no real surprises in the RBA's minutes of the Feb Board meeting given the media blitz two weeks ago. Worth keeping attention on the downside and upside scenarios and any pointers for what could provoke changes in RBA thinking.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

As the fresh covid wave in Victoria joins the anticipated lag in employment, as well as inflation, recovery in Australia, any strong dovish comments from the minutes' statement should probe the AUD/USD bulls targeting the yearly top. However, the event may get a little attention while matching market expectations of mildly bearish signals. It should also be noted that surprise optimism may not refrain to propel the upside momentum.

Technically, the break of a downward slopping trend line from January 06 directs AUD/USD bulls toward refreshing the yearly top beyond 0.7820. However, the 0.7800 threshold seems to test the current moves. Any pullback may get seem unimportant before breaking the previous resistance line, at 0.7750 now.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Run-up to yearly top eyes RBA Meeting Minutes below 0.7800

AUD/USD Forecast: Bullish, but RBA Meeting Minutes on the way

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.