EUR/USD: Support from the 200-DMA at 1.1831 to hold for now – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD extends its defence of its rising 200-day moving average (DMA), currently seen at 1.1831 and the Credit Suisse analyst team sees scope for a deeper recovery from here still.

See: EUR/USD to test 1.17 as the EU struggles to reinvigorate vaccine rollout – Westpac

Key quotes

“EUR/USD extends its near-term recovery as expected after its fall to just ahead of our target of the rising 200-day average, currently seen at 1.1831. Although we see scope for recovery to extend further, this remains seen as a corrective bounce ahead of the risk turning lower again.” 

“Above 1.1933/47 should trigger a deeper intraday recovery to 1.1991, a price resistance, the 38.2% retracement of the fall from late February and 13-day exponential average. We look for this to then ideally cap and for the risk to turn lower again. Above 1.1991 though would suggest can extend further to 1.2039/54.” 

“Support is seen at 1.1882 initially, with a break below 1.1852 needed to suggest the bounce is over for a retest of 1.1835/31. A close below here can then reassert the bear trend with support then seen next 1.1800 ahead of 1.1745 and then more importantly at the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695, with a fresh floor expected here.”