When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

March month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish bias on the jobs figures contradicts the aussie pair’s recently upbeat performance.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to ease to 35.0K from 88.7K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to ease from 5.8% to 5.7%. Further, the Participation Rate may remain unchanged at 66.1%.

TD Securities expect a mixed data while saying,

We pencil in an above-consensus headline employment gain of +60k (Market forecast: +35k) in Mar, extending the strong 89k employment gain last month, bringing employment back to pre-Covid levels. Given healthy labor demand (ANZ Mar job ads: 7.4%) and firm weekly payrolls data (up by 0.2% y/y ending 13 Mar), we expect further employment gains and think there is upside risk given the positive correlation of Australia employment outcome with strong offshore employment outcome in the US. Additionally, we expect the participation rate to edge up to 66.2% in Mar, which implies a decline in unemployment to 5.6% from 5.8% previously.

Additionally, analysts at Westpac said,

The March ABS labor force survey will be released. Leading indicators of employment, such as weekly payrolls, job vacancies and the various business surveys all suggest labor demand continued to strengthen through March and into April. Westpac expects an employment gain of +32k (market 35k), but there are upside risks to this forecast. Rising participation is muting the improvement in unemployment. A 0.1ppt increase in participation to 66.2% will hold the unemployment rate at 5.8%.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD cheers the broad US dollar weakness while picking up the bids near 0.7740, up 0.11% intraday, ahead of the key jobs report during Thursday’s Asian session. In addition to the greenback weakness, unlock activities at home and rejection of vaccine woes by Aussie PM Scott Morrison should have also contributed to the pair’s latest upside.

However, the RBA’s economic optimism will be tested by today’s jobs report and hence any downbeat figures can trigger the much-awaited pullback after the strongest AUD/USD run-up since late February. Meanwhile, positive surprises will help the quote to refresh the three-week top flashed the previous day.

Technically, not only a daily closing beyond a downward sloping trend line from February 25 but a clear breakout of 50-day SMA, respectively around 0.7640 and 0.7720, directs AUD/USD further north towards the 0.7800 threshold and then to the previous month’s high near 0.7850.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Bulls await Australian jobs data near three-week top above 0.7700

Australian Employment Preview: Upbeat jobs data to provide tailwind to the aussie 

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears seeking downside break into Jobs data

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).