When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for April is due for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is seen higher at 97.8 versus 96.6 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is expected to rise to 94.4 this month vs. 93.0 prior while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 101.3 in the reported month vs. 100.4 last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 30 pips in deviations up to 3.0 to -4.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades better bid while defending 1.2100 ahead of the German data, benefiting from a broadly weaker US dollar. The spot hit fresh two-month highs at 1.2117 earlier in the Asian session.

The spot faces immediate resistance at 1.2117, above which the 1.2150 psychological level could challenge the upside. Alternatively, disappointing data could trigger a corrective pullback towards 1.2068, the 5-DMA. If the selling pressure intensifies then the 100-DMA support at 1.2055 could get tested. The last line of defense for the EUR bulls is seen at 1.2033, the 10-DMA.

Key notes

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About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).