Vaccine rollout a big shot in the arm to UK growth outlook – Reuters poll

“Britain's economy will grow much faster than expected this year as a fast-moving coronavirus vaccine program allows businesses to re-open and lifts confidence,” per the latest Reuters poll.

The survey of 60 economists, conducted during May 18-20, also mentioned, “The UK economy will expand 5.9% this year, much stronger than the 5.0% forecast last month.” The details suggest Q2 2021 GDP to be 4.1% versus 3.5% previous forecast.

However, the Bank of England (BOE) isn’t expected to alter its benchmarks interest rates until 2023, already conveyed in the previous survey. “That was despite predictions in the poll for inflation to exceed the central bank's 2% goal towards the end of this year and into 2022,” the update adds.

Reuters also highlight comments from HSBC analyst, Elizabeth Martins, saying, “We are revising our GDP growth forecasts. However, this is largely a revision to the projected timing of the recovery, not the extent.” It’s worth mentioning that HSBC’s Martin pumped Q2 forecasts to 4.6% from 2.9% previous forecast but revised down Q3 GDP expectations, per the report.