25 Jul 2014
Uncertainty about Italy’s 2Q14 GDP estimate remains elevated - ING
FXStreet (Łódź) - Paolo Pizzoli from ING believes that in the light of recent weak international trade and retail trade data doubts remain about Italy’s positive growth reading in 2Q14.
Key quotes
“The trade surplus with non-EU countries came in at €2.15bn, still positive, but down 11% from June 2013, mostly on fresh export weakness. In seasonal adjusted terms, exports to non-EU countries were down 4.3% MoM (+5.4% in May).”
“Geopolitical developments and the uncertain macro backdrop in part of the developing world have apparently been taking their toll.”
“In the current framework the extent to which net exports will be able to stimulate GDP growth is increasingly leaning on EU demand.”
“On the domestic demand front the news flow does not justify big enthusiasm either. Yesterday Istat announced that in May seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales contracted 0.7% MoM (-0.5% YoY), with both food items (-1.2% MoM) and non-food items (-0.3% MoM) in negative territory.”
“Yesterday’s evidence of the extreme fragility of the Italian economic recovery comes at atime when the government is struggling to speed up the parliamentary vote on constitutional reforms. The issue of growth (or the lack thereof) looks set to add new fuel for the political debate.”
Key quotes
“The trade surplus with non-EU countries came in at €2.15bn, still positive, but down 11% from June 2013, mostly on fresh export weakness. In seasonal adjusted terms, exports to non-EU countries were down 4.3% MoM (+5.4% in May).”
“Geopolitical developments and the uncertain macro backdrop in part of the developing world have apparently been taking their toll.”
“In the current framework the extent to which net exports will be able to stimulate GDP growth is increasingly leaning on EU demand.”
“On the domestic demand front the news flow does not justify big enthusiasm either. Yesterday Istat announced that in May seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales contracted 0.7% MoM (-0.5% YoY), with both food items (-1.2% MoM) and non-food items (-0.3% MoM) in negative territory.”
“Yesterday’s evidence of the extreme fragility of the Italian economic recovery comes at atime when the government is struggling to speed up the parliamentary vote on constitutional reforms. The issue of growth (or the lack thereof) looks set to add new fuel for the political debate.”