EUR/USD: The risk stays seen mildly lower whilst below 1.2208/18 – Credit Suisse

While below 1.2208/18, the EUR/USD pair can keep the immediate risk lower for further weakness to 1.2053/51, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

See – European Central Bank Preview: Forecasts from 13 major banks

Above 1.2185 is needed for a retest of 1.2218/19

“Early strength in EUR/USD yesterday was capped at price resistance at 1.2208/18 and with daily RSI and MACD momentum trending lower we maintain our immediate albeit mild defensive bias.”

“We continue to look for further weakness within the broader sideways range with support seen at 1.2144/34 initially, below which should see a fall back to 1.2103, then 1.2053/51 – the mid-May low and 38.2% retracement of the rally from late March and now also the rising 55-day average. Our bias is to then look for a floor here. A break though would expose the 200-day average and May low at 1.1989/85.” 

“Above 1.2185 is needed for a retest of 1.2218/19. Through here remains needed to ease the threat of a setback for a move back to the 1.2255/67 highs and downtrend from January. This remains seen as the barrier to a move to the top of the range for the year at 1.2320/50.”