When is the US ADP jobs report and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US ADP jobs report overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment, scheduled at 12:15 GMT. Economists expect another strong report, indicating that private-sector employers added 600K new jobs in June. This would mark a sharp deceleration from the previous month's blowout figure of nearly one million.

According to Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst, “ADP's monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report provides a snapshot of private-sector hiring and serves as a leading indicator to the official NFP released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wednesday's early publication helps shape expectations for Friday.”

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

A stronger than expected print will add to the optimistic outlook for the US economy and the labor market. This could further fuel speculations about a potential early monetary policy tightening by the Fed and provide an additional boost to the already stronger US dollar. Conversely, the market reaction to softer reading is more likely to be muted as investors would prefer to wait for the release of the official jobs report (NFP) on Friday. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam offered a brief technical outlook for the major: “Euro/dollar has failed to recapture the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart and is also dragged lower by downside momentum – while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is far from oversold conditions. Overall, bears are in control.”

Yohay also offered important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Some support awaits at the daily low of 1.1885, followed by 1.1850, which was a low point in mid-June. Further below, the next levels to watch are 1.18 and 1.1760. Looking up, some resistance is at 1.1920, a support line from last week, followed by the late Juen peak of 1.1975. Above 1.20, a significant cap can be seen only at 1.2050.”

Key Notes

  •  ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Going contrarian? How to trade this leading indicator

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: Dollar strength threatens to push pair below 1.1850

  •  EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears need to consider the daily M-formation

About the US ADP jobs report

The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.