Oil: OPEC to come to an accord, WTI to head back to the $70 level – TDS

WTI Crude Oil is trading around $73, off the lows it hit in response to speculation that the UAE would ramp up output. Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, believes the black gold may hit $80 during the thirds quarter but WTI is forecast to trend back lower to the $70 level over the next twelve months.

OPEC+ to finally reach an accord

“A material rally or decline is unlikely until the market hears details on how the OPEC+ group settles the request from the UAE to increase its production base. If the producer group limits monthly supply increases to the previously discussed 400k b/d per month through December, we project that WTI may well challenge $80/b some time during Q3-2021, despite COVID-19 Delta variant risks.”

“It is unlikely that the end to sanctions against Iran will result in an outsized change in supply-demand conditions through much of that period. However, if no OPEC+ plus deal is made and all members produce to capacity, there will be a very large surplus and prices may see a very sharp declines.”

“After current uncertainties and a period of elevated prices, we believe that OPEC+ will come to an accord which will continue to see supply match demand growth, with WTI prices then trending back to near $70/b over the next twelve months.”