USD/RUB: Looking beyond August for big downside – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse stay constructive on the rouble and stick to a short-term target of 72.00 for USD/RUB. They would consider selling on a possible rise to 75.00. 

No reason to alter constructive view on the rouble 

“The rouble benefits from a combination of attractive valuations against oil prices, a relatively stable Russia/US relationship, and appealing carry.” 

“We recognise that in the absence of a clear near-term rouble-bullish catalyst and with the BBDXY trading in a range, USD/RUB will probably struggle for now to break below its late June lows of close to 72.00. We stick to this level as our short-term target.” 

“We would consider going long the rouble when and if USD/RUB returns to 75.00.”

“USD/RUB downside can be substantial in a ‘good scenario’ – much below our short-term 72.00 target – as markets get more comfortable with the sanctions risks and therefore allow further meaningful catch-up with oil prices.”